John Burson  edited Thursday, May 15, 2025

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USCIS Releases Comprehensive I-526/I-526E Petition Data Through Jan 2025 After AIIA Lawsuit

Detailed EB-5 Petition Statistics Through January 2025 Highlight Visa Demand and Backlogs After AIIA FOIA Litigation

In response to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request filed by the American Immigrant Investor Alliance (AIIA), the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has released comprehensive statistics on I-526 and I-526E petition receipts from April 1, 2022, through January 31, 2025.

This data provides unprecedented visibility into EB-5 investment patterns across different targeted employment area (TEA) categories and countries of chargeability. The statistics reveal significant disparities in petition distribution, with Rural and High Unemployment TEAs dominating filings and creating substantial visa backlogs, particularly for investors from China and India. This report analyzes the newly released data and examines its implications for current and prospective EB-5 investors.

Overview of the AIIA FOIA Request and Data Release

The American Immigrant Investor Alliance has been actively pursuing greater transparency in EB-5 program administration through multiple FOIA requests and lawsuits against USCIS. This most recent data release represents the most comprehensive post-Reform and Integrity Act (RIA) I-526E report to date, containing detailed petition receipts by month, TEA category, and country of origin. The report is particularly valuable because it reflects data queried by the USCIS Office of Performance and Quality in February 2025, accounting for the time typically required for USCIS to enter receipts into their database.

This latest release builds upon previous AIIA-initiated data disclosures from April 2023, November 2023, and July 2024, providing stakeholders with crucial information for understanding visa backlogs and estimating waiting times in reserved visa categories.

The data covers the period following the implementation of the EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022, which introduced significant changes to the program, including the creation of reserved visa categories for Rural, high-unemployment, and Infrastructure projects. This timing makes the information particularly valuable for analyzing how the program has evolved under the new regulatory framework.

Analysis of I-526/I-526E Filing Patterns by TEA Category

According to the newly released data, USCIS received a total of 9,878 I-526/I-526E petitions between April 1, 2022, and January 31, 20251. These petitions were distributed across different TEA categories, revealing clear preferences among investors and regional centers.

The High Unemployment TEA category attracted the largest share of petitions, accounting for 5,191 filings or approximately 53% of the total. This popularity likely stems from the relative accessibility of qualifying projects in urban areas with high unemployment rates, which may be perceived as offering better risk-return profiles compared to rural investments. The concentration of petitions in this category has significant implications for visa availability, as discussed later in this report.

Rural TEAs followed closely behind with 4,329 petitions, representing 44% of total filings. The strong showing in this category is noteworthy given the historical challenges associated with rural investments, suggesting that the reserved visa allocation for rural projects (2,000 visas annually compared to 1,000 for High Unemployment) may have successfully incentivized investment in these areas. The substantial percentage of rural filings indicates a significant shift in investment patterns following the RIA's implementation.

Perhaps most surprising is the complete absence of petitions in the Infrastructure TEA category, which recorded zero filings during the reporting period. This lack of interest may reflect challenges in structuring qualifying infrastructure projects under the EB-5 program requirements or potential uncertainties regarding the criteria for this designation.

The "Other" TEA category, encompassing investments that do not qualify for any of the reserved visa allocations, accounted for just 358 petitions or 4% of the total. This minimal interest likely reflects the strategic disadvantage these investments face in terms of visa availability, as investors increasingly prioritize projects that qualify for reserved visa categories to potentially reduce waiting times.

Country-Specific Filing Trends and Implications

The data reveals significant disparities in petition distribution across countries of origin, with investors from certain nations dominating the EB-5 landscape. This geographic concentration has important implications for visa availability and processing times.

China continues to lead EB-5 investment activity, accounting for 5,162 petitions or 52% of the total filings during the reporting period. Chinese investors showed a strong preference for Rural TEA investments, submitting 2,684 petitions in this category compared to 2,380 in high-unemployment TEAs. This preference for rural investments may reflect strategic decisions to leverage the larger annual visa allocation for rural projects (2,000) versus high-unemployment areas (1,000).

India emerged as the second-largest source of petitions, contributing 1,790 filings or approximately 18% of the total. Unlike Chinese investors, Indian applicants demonstrated a slight preference for High Unemployment TEAs, with 883 petitions compared to 847 in the Rural category. This pattern may reflect differences in risk assessment or project accessibility between investors from the two countries.

Investors from the rest of the world collectively submitted 2,926 petitions, representing 30% of total filings. This group showed a stronger preference for High Unemployment TEA investments, with 1,928 petitions in this category compared to 798 in Rural TEAs.

This distribution suggests that investors from countries outside China and India may have different project selection criteria or may be more attracted to urban investments in high-unemployment areas.

Processing Times and Approval Rates

While the AIIA FOIA data primarily focuses on filing volumes, additional information from USCIS quarterly statistics provides insights into processing times and approval rates for I-526 and I-526E petitions. This context is essential for understanding the full timeline investors face from petition filing to eventual visa issuance.

According to IIUSA's report on Q1 FY2025 data, I-526E case filings continued to increase in the first quarter of the fiscal year, growing by 32% compared to Q4 FY2024. This sustained growth indicates ongoing strong demand for EB-5 visas despite high filing fees and long processing times. However, the same report notes a significant slowdown in USCIS processing capacity during this period.

The processing of I-526E petitions decreased by 49% in Q1 FY2025 compared to the previous quarter, with only 202 petitions adjudicated. Similarly, pre-RIA I-526 case adjudications saw a 39% quarterly decrease. This processing slowdown raises concerns about growing backlogs and extended waiting times for investors. The causes of this productivity decline are not specified in the available data but warrant attention from program stakeholders.

Despite the slowdown in processing volume, approval rates for I-526E cases remained impressively high at over 95% during Q1 FY2025. This high approval rate suggests that post-RIA applications are generally well-prepared and compliant with program requirements. In contrast, pre-RIA I-526 cases had a somewhat lower approval rate of 75%, potentially reflecting differences in documentation requirements or project structures between the old and new regulatory frameworks.

USCIS has processed 429 Forms I-526 and I-526E that have been filed since the enactment of the RIA, showing a commitment to prioritizing the processing of cases, particularly those filed under the reserved rural category. 

Implications for Visa Backlogs and Wait Times

Perhaps the most significant revelation from the newly released data concerns the substantial imbalance between petition volumes and annual visa availability, resulting in significant backlogs and extended waiting times for investors.

The data shows demand for approximately 10,382 High Unemployment visas and 8,658 Rural visas as of January 2025, when accounting for derivative beneficiaries such as spouses and children. These figures far exceed the statutory annual visa availability of 1,000 for High Unemployment and 2,000 for Rural set-aside visas. The disparity is particularly stark for the High Unemployment category, where demand outstrips supply by more than tenfold.

Suppose visas were issued on a first-in-first-out basis without country limitations. In that case, investors filing petitions after January 2025 could face waiting times of approximately 10 years for High Unemployment TEAs and 4 years for Rural TEAs. However, the actual situation is more complex due to country caps that limit visa issuance to 7% of the annual allocation per country.

For investors from China and India, which collectively account for 70% of all petitions, the country limits exacerbate already lengthy waiting times. For example, an Indian investor considering a TEA investment today might face waiting times of 5 to 10 years or more for a visa based on current backlogs. However, such an investor might potentially reduce waiting time by opting to be allocated an Unreserved visa after I-526E approval, as the Unreserved pre-RIA backlog for India-born petitioners may be cleared within 5 years.

Similarly, Chinese investors in TEA projects might consider the Unreserved category as a fallback option, as the China pre-RIA Unreserved backlog may potentially be cleared in about 8 years. The backlog situation could improve if many investors from countries other than China and India elect to take Unreserved visas following I-526E approval, thereby leaving more reserved visas available for Chinese and Indian investors.

Conclusion and Future Outlook

The detailed I-526/I-526E petition data released by USCIS following the AIIA lawsuit provides unprecedented transparency into EB-5 program operations and investor behavior in the post-RIA landscape. The data reveals several significant trends: the overwhelming preference for Rural and High Unemployment TEA investments, the complete absence of Infrastructure TEA filings, the continued dominance of Chinese and Indian investors, and the growing imbalance between petition volumes and visa availability.

These findings have important implications for various stakeholders. For prospective investors, the data underscores the importance of strategic project selection and realistic expectations regarding visa timelines. For regional centers and project developers, it highlights the need to differentiate offerings in increasingly competitive Rural and High Unemployment TEA markets. For policymakers, it raises questions about the effectiveness of current visa allocations, particularly the untapped Infrastructure TEA category and the severe oversubscription of High Unemployment visas.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs):

What are the key trends in I-526/I-526E petition data through January 2025?

USCIS received a total of 9,878 I-526/I-526E petitions from April 2022 through January 2025. Of these, 44% were filed under Rural Targeted Employment Areas (TEAs), 53% under High Unemployment Areas (HUA) TEAs, and 4% under other TEA categories, with no petitions filed in infrastructure TEAs. The data shows a steady narrowing of the gap between rural and HUA petition volumes. China leads in petition volume with 52% of total filings, followed by India at 18%, and the rest of the world at 30%.

How does this data impact visa backlogs and waiting times?

The demand for EB-5 visas significantly exceeds the annual visa availability for both HUA and rural set-aside categories. For example, the demand corresponds to approximately 10,400 HUA visas and 8,700 rural visas, while statutory annual visa limits are 1,000 and 2,000, respectively. This oversubscription contributes to longer visa backlogs and extended waiting times. Additionally, low approval rates relative to demand and slow processing volumes exacerbate these delays, especially for high-demand countries like China and India.

What are the main differences between rural and high-unemployment TEAs in the petition data?

Rural TEAs accounted for 44% of petitions, while high-unemployment TEAs made up 53%. Rural TEAs have seen a steady increase in filings, closing the gap with HUA filings. The geographic and economic distinctions between these TEA categories influence investor choices and visa set-aside allocations. Notably, no petitions were filed under infrastructure TEAs. China leads in petition volume in both rural and HUA categories, followed by India and other countries.

How significant is China's dominance in I-526/I-526E petitions?

China dominates the EB-5 petition landscape, accounting for 52% of all I-526/I-526E petitions filed during the period. Specifically, China filed 2,684 rural TEA petitions and 2,380 HUA TEA petitions, making it the largest single country by far. This dominance heavily influences visa backlogs and waiting times, as the volume of Chinese petitions far exceeds visa availability in the set-aside categories.

What role does the American Immigrant Investor Alliance (AIIA) play in obtaining and analyzing this data?

AIIA played a crucial role by filing a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) lawsuit compelling USCIS to release detailed and updated I-526/I-526E petition data through January 2025. This data release provides transparency on EB-5 visa demand, petition trends by TEA category and country, and helps stakeholders better understand visa backlogs and waiting times. AIIA’s efforts have enabled more accurate backlog predictions and informed advocacy for EB-5 program improvements.

Sources:

• USCIS detailed I-526/I-526E petition data through Jan 2025 following AIIA lawsuit: EB5Insights
• USCIS official Form I-526 page: USCIS I-526
• AIIA FOIA series with updated I-526E inventory stats: AIIA FOIA Report
• IIUSA Q1 FY2024 EB-5 data report (PDF): IIUSA Quarterly Report
• LucidText EB-5 blog on new I-526E data and backlogs: LucidText Blog

 
 
 

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